Why Gold Will Likely Sell Off Hard in the 2025-2026 Recession

Gold bugs have had their moment in the sun, but the party is coming to an end. The shiny metal has soared past $2,800, with investors piling in under the illusion that gold is a foolproof hedge against economic turmoil. But let’s cut through the noise: gold is not invincible, and the 2025-2026 recession will likely crush it.

The Parabolic Surge Before the Fall

Look at the chart below. Gold has broken out of a long-term wedge pattern and rocketed to new highs. This is classic late-stage euphoria. Every asset experiences a blow-off top before reality sets in, and gold is no exception. The last time gold ran up this aggressively (2011), it suffered a multi-year decline that erased nearly 45% of its value. The same setup is unfolding again.