MARKET SNAP: The Waiting Game is Almost Over
In the last couple of weeks I warned the reversal was “late, not dead.” Since then nothing important has improved. Price only drifted higher, volume leaked lower, and the macro timer kept ticking. We are now weeks deeper into the same setup, with even less fuel beneath it.
1. Nasdaq – Price Presses the Last Rail
Single rising wedge from Oct 2022.
Price now touches the upper rail near 22800-23000. Every prior tag dumped 10-15 %.
RSI divergence, lower highs. Volume fading.
Slower drift does not mean safety. It means pressure.
Weekly close below 21 500 cracks the pattern and opens 18 800 then 16 300. No grey zone.
2. Yield Curve – Recession Fuse Lit
10Y-2Y inverted Jul 2022.
Curve flipped back positive Sep 2024.
Every cycle since 1980: steepening after inversion leads to recession inside 6-12 months.
We are in that window right now. Bonds have spoken. Stocks have not listened.
3. NVIDIA – King of Vapor Gains
The index’s latest push? Almost entirely NVIDIA. It's carrying the market on its silicon shoulders.
Monthly chart rides an 6-year rising channel.
Price is kissing the upper rail almost for a third time within 12 months.
Monthly RSI shows lower highs while price makes higher highs.
Volume weaker on every new peak.
The strength in the index is not broad-based. It is NVIDIA that continues to bear most of the weight. Without it, the Nasdaq’s recent performance would be meaningfully weaker.
Technically, the monthly chart shows NVIDIA trading within a rising channel that has held for over six years. Price is now approaching the upper boundary of that channel for the third time in twelve months. This repeated testing of the upper rail reflects stretched conditions, not renewed strength.
More importantly, momentum is weakening. The monthly RSI has been making lower highs since 2017, while price continues to make higher highs. This persistent bearish divergence suggests underlying fatigue in the trend. Each leg higher is accompanied by reduced relative strength, pointing to a market that is rising on weaker footing.
Volume has also been fading with each new high. Participation is narrowing. There is little evidence of broad-based conviction or sustainable accumulation. This is not the kind of strength that leads to durable new cycles.
Fundamentally, the narrative has become saturated. Valuation remains aggressive, forward expectations assume uninterrupted growth in AI demand, and yet margins and competitive dynamics are unlikely to remain as favorable. There is little room for disappointment.
NVIDIA has become structurally embedded in every major index and ETF tied to the tech sector. Its influence extends across QQQ, SMH, SOXX, and beyond. If NVIDIA begins to retrace, it will not move alone. The rest of the complex is likely to follow.
What began as leadership is now a point of fragility. If the upper bound of the channel holds again, the downside risk becomes significant, not just for NVIDIA, but for the entire market narrative built around AI and passive momentum.
4. Trigger Board
Fed stays hawkish.
CPI beats.
10-year pops above 4.5 %.
Brent > 80.
Geopolitical flare-up.
NVIDIA finally rolls.
Tariff war escalates
Any one of these starts the avalanche
5. My Trade Plan
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